Bitwise Lays Out a Seven-Figure Bitcoin Thesis

Crypto asset manager Bitwise argues that Bitcoin is entering a structural demand phase dominated by large institutions and could reach $1.3 million per coin by 2035.

In its new long-term capital-market assumptions, the firm projects that Bitcoin could deliver ~28% compound annual returns over the next decade, fueled by persistent inflows from pensions, insurers, sovereign wealth funds, and wealth-management platforms.

The thesis is straightforward: institutions now have regulated access via ETFs and qualified custodians, while Bitcoin’s supply remains capped and inelastic.

Institutional Giants Eye Trillions in Allocation

Bitwise estimates that “institutional giants” could ultimately deploy around $5 trillion into Bitcoin vehicles, either directly or through synthetic exposure.

This process won’t happen overnight. Instead, Bitwise envisions a staircase of adoption:

• Bank and wirehouse platforms gradually switching on ETF access.
• Investment committees growing comfortable with fiduciary use.
• Policy clarity unlocking more mandates.

Each onboarding wave tends to be sticky—once an institution adds BTC, it rarely reverses course.

Fixed Supply Meets Expanding Demand

Bitcoin’s supply dynamics strengthen the case:

• Nearly all 21M coins already circulate.
• Halving events continue to reduce new issuance.
• Exchange balances are thinning as ETFs and treasuries warehouse more BTC.

Bitwise frames this as a structural asymmetry: slow-moving institutions meeting a fixed-cap asset means incremental dollars push price disproportionately higher.

ETFs and Market Structure: A New Price Discovery Era

Spot Bitcoin ETFs now act as regulated pipelines for institutional demand.

• They provide audited, rules-based wrappers, suitable for fiduciary investors.
• Accumulation via ETFs reduces exchange supply, shifting price discovery toward capital markets flows.
• Long-term, Bitwise argues this could dampen volatility, even if 30–60% drawdowns still occur along the way.

Bitcoin as a Portfolio Diversifier

The report situates Bitcoin within diversified portfolios:

• Low correlation with traditional assets helps reduce overall risk.
• Even small allocations can lift expected returns.
• Macro tailwinds—sovereign debt loads, inflationary pressures, and censorship-resistant savings demand—strengthen the case.

Scenarios: Bull, Base, and Bear

• Base Case (28% CAGR): ~$1.3M by 2035 through gradual institutional allocation.
• Bull Case: Faster sovereign adoption, larger corporate treasuries, and accelerated platform approvals could push BTC well beyond $1.3M.
• Bear Case: Slower ETF flows, policy drag, or macro shocks still yield positive but modest long-term gains.

Risks to the Outlook

Bitwise cautions that hazards remain:

• Adverse regulation or outright bans.
• Custody failures or security breaches.
• Protocol-level bugs or disruptive competing technologies.
• Liquidity shocks in broader markets forcing across-the-board de-risking.

The firm recommends careful position sizing, long horizons, and disciplined rebalancing to weather volatility.

Bottom Line

Bitwise sees Bitcoin evolving into a durable institutional asset, supported by regulated ETFs, custody pipelines, and fixed supply dynamics.

If institutional allocations scale into the trillions over the next decade, Bitcoin could compound into seven-figure territory by 2035, cementing its role as a core portfolio asset despite periodic deep corrections.