Ripple ETF Odds Hit New High

The chances of a Ripple exchange-traded fund (ETF) winning approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) surged to almost 90% on August 8, according to data from blockchain prediction market Polymarket. The odds jumped by more than 20 percentage points in less than 24 hours, marking one of the sharpest spikes since speculation about the ETF began.

SEC Legal Case Comes to an End

The rally in approval expectations followed breaking news that the SEC and Ripple had agreed to end their years-long legal dispute over the status of the XRP token. On August 7, both parties filed a joint stipulation to dismiss their appeals in the XRP case, effectively closing the chapter on a battle that began in 2020.

The SEC had argued that XRP met the definition of a security, while Ripple firmly rejected the claim. A string of legal defeats for the SEC and the arrival of a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration appear to have softened the regulator’s stance.

For many industry watchers, the unresolved lawsuit was a major barrier to any Ripple ETF application. Without the case hanging over the company, they believe the SEC has far fewer grounds to deny approval.

Odds Volatility and Analyst Views

Before August 6, Ripple ETF approval odds had been comfortably above 70%, dipping below that mark only briefly since April 22. When they fell to 62%, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas attributed the drop to news that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw had voted against the ETF.

However, Balchunas — who personally puts approval chances at 95% — suggested her “no” vote might have little impact given that the majority of commissioners appear to favor approval.

XRP Price Reacts to the News

XRP’s market price responded sharply to the legal settlement news. The token climbed over 12% to $3.36 before settling around $3.24. Optimistic traders believe the momentum could push XRP toward, or even beyond, its all-time high from July.

With legal clarity and growing institutional interest, XRP supporters see an ETF as the next logical step toward mainstream adoption.

The Bigger Picture for Crypto ETFs

The Ripple ETF buzz comes amid a broader trend of increasing crypto ETF approvals in the U.S., including products linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Industry experts say a Ripple ETF could be a milestone for altcoins, opening the door for more token-specific ETFs in the future.

While the SEC has historically been cautious, the combination of legal resolution, political shifts, and market demand makes the Ripple ETF one of the most closely watched developments in crypto finance this year.